Thinking Energy Blog
By Dennis McConaghy
Presently, the Trudeau government’s climate policy identifies with the long-term aspiration of achieving zero net emission in Canada by 2050. More specifically, Canada unconditionally commits to meeting its Paris emission reduction target for 2030.To meet both objectives Canada will de facto impose a national carbon tax over the remainder of the decade rising to $170/tonne by 2030. However, this carbon tax regime is not necessarily the only policy instrument that will be imposed if meeting the Paris target is expected to be achieved.
In January 2021, the IESO released its 2020 Annual Planning Outlook. The Outlook provides the IESO’s long-term demand forecast for the 2022 to 2040 period and an assessment of whether resources will be ready and sufficient to meet that demand. The Outlook also reveals Ontario’s electricity conundrum – the interplay between excess energy production and need for additional capacity, the enduring effects of costly and inflexible solar and wind contracts, and the public expectation that electricity production come from sources that do not emit GHG.